AI insight
95% chance of a further slip within 30 days
From the SPI trend (0.74), the task closure rate and the open risks, the early-warning engine expects another slip unless the resource gap is closed.
Confidence82%
PRJ-2026-004Critical4ExecutionConstructionStalledDelivered by:Ministry of Energy
Aleppo 230 kV Substations Rehabilitation
Remove from watchlistRehabilitating four 230 kV substations in Aleppo city (28 high-voltage bays) and linking them to the control centre, to lengthen supply hours in the neighbourhoods and the industrial zone.
Project managerEng. Maher Al-HamawiProject sponsorSalma Al-ZaimProgrammeEnergy & Water Systems Rehabilitation Programme
Early warning: 95% chance of slipping within 30 days
Budget (BAC)
SYP 10.3B
Actual cost
SYP 8.3B
81% of budget
Progress
68%Awaiting acceptance 9%
Estimate at completion
SYP 12.3B
+SYP 2B
SPI · CPI
0.74Schedule performance index · 0.740.84Cost performance index · 0.84
Forecast finish
2027-02-03
126 days behind baseline
ExecutionStage 4 of 5
Next gate:Closure13 July 2026
- Pre-start · CompletePre-start · Complete
- Gate into «Initiation»DecisionGoDate15 November 2023Initiation · CompleteInitiation · Complete
- Gate into «Planning»DecisionGoDate14 January 2024Planning · CompletePlanning · Complete
- Gate into «Execution»DecisionConditional goDate20 June 2024Execution · Current stageExecution · Current stage
- Gate into «Closure»DecisionNot held yetDate13 July 2026Closure · Not startedClosure · Not started
Project health across eight dimensions
A weighted index, not just percent complete; each dimension leads to the tab that explains it.
Health index
45
Critical
Critical
- Schedule33A material slip on the critical path.Critical
- Cost47A forecast overrun at completion.Off track
- Risk46A high risk open without an adequate response.Off track
- Scope64Scope changes pending.At risk
- Quality44Rejected deliverables need rework.Off track
- Resources43Critical roles vacant.Off track
- Stakeholders63Engagement gaps with some parties.At risk
- Benefits42Benefits not yet measurable.Off track
Index over the last six reports
−21
May to October 2026
No material change in the health dimensions over the period.
Copilot summary
Generated from the live project data
The project is behind plan: 68% done against 92% planned.
SPI 0.74, CPI 0.84.
The project’s link, progress and status
How the project ties to the strategy, its progress counted from accepted deliverables, and its status history.
Strategic link
The main objective and initiative, the secondary links, and the project’s contribution to its initiative.
Main strategic objective· Axis: Reconstruction & InfrastructureSO-2.1Rehabilitate core energy, water and transport infrastructure
Main initiative
SI-2.1.2Power & water systems rehabilitation
Contribution to the initiative86%
The project’s share of the initiative’s project budget (2 projects)
Secondary links
- Secondary objectiveSO-1.1Stimulate growth, restore production and attract investment
- Supporting initiativeIntegrated government financial systems
- Supporting initiativeIndustrial recovery & skills
- Annual work-plan line
- WP-2024-004
- Classification
- Operational
Project progress from accepted deliverables
Project progress = the sum of the weights of deliverables accepted with a completion certificate; nothing counts before acceptance.
Counted
68%Awaiting acceptance 9%
Not handed in 23%
8 deliverables accepted
- Site works & excavation13%
- Structure13%
- Finishes13%
- Supply11%
- Detailed design6%
- Permits & approvals6%
- Project plan & baseline3%
- Monitoring & reporting3%
1 deliverable under inspection or acceptance
- Installation9%
Corrective planCP-2026-02
Approved — under wayOverdue: 1
The main contractor’s cash-flow distress and unpaid subcontractors, an oil leak in substation 2’s transformer during testing, and control-room changes never shown to Civil Defence
Actions
1 of 5 done
Next: Appoint an independent financial adviser to audit contractor liquidity · Omar Al-Nahhas · 2026-10-20
Days won back
0 of 45
With the plan: 2027-02-03
Progress & earned value
4 of 5 milestones complete
Earned-value curve
Planned, earned and actual to the data date, cumulative, with the forecast cost tail
- Planned value
- Earned value
- Actual cost
- Estimate at completion
- Budget at completion
Budget & commitments
Commitments are 98% of budget
SYP8.3B/ SYP10.3BSYP2Bprojected overrun(19.0%)
- Actual spend
- SYP8.3B
- Committed
- SYP10.1B
- Approved budget
- SYP10.3B
- Estimate at completion
- SYP12.3B
Next milestones
- Closure2027-02-03was 2026-09-30Late
Waiting on someone
1 approval and 3 open actions on this project
Approvals & requests
From «My actions» for this project
- Direct payment to subcontractors on the Aleppo substations22 hours leftAction time limit about to lapseDecision
Actions
3 open
- Appoint an independent financial adviser to audit the contractor’s liquidityOmar Al-Nahhas8 days overdue2026-10-20Critical
- Pay subcontractors directly from the next certificateRasha Al-MudarresIn 8 days2026-11-05Critical
- Re-test the station 2 transformer after the leak repairEng. Maher Al-HamawiIn 5 days2026-11-02High
Change requests
Cost and schedule impact
Risks & impediments
3 open risks, exposure SYP 1.3B
Risk map
Probability
5Probability: Almost certain · Impact: NegligibleLow · Score 5Probability: Almost certain · Impact: MinorMedium · Score 10Probability: Almost certain · Impact: ModerateHigh · Score 15Probability: Almost certain · Impact: MajorCritical · Score 201Probability: Almost certain · Impact: SevereCritical · Score 25RSK-0021Main contractor cash-flow trouble and late payment of subcontractors
4Probability: Likely · Impact: NegligibleLow · Score 4Probability: Likely · Impact: MinorMedium · Score 8Probability: Likely · Impact: ModerateMedium · Score 12Probability: Likely · Impact: MajorHigh · Score 16Probability: Likely · Impact: SevereCritical · Score 20
3Probability: Possible · Impact: NegligibleLow · Score 3Probability: Possible · Impact: MinorLow · Score 6Probability: Possible · Impact: ModerateMedium · Score 91Probability: Possible · Impact: MajorMedium · Score 12RSK-0023Faults in the new transformers during commissioning1Probability: Possible · Impact: SevereHigh · Score 15RSK-0022Control-room fire systems not meeting civil-defence requirements
2Probability: Unlikely · Impact: NegligibleLow · Score 2Probability: Unlikely · Impact: MinorLow · Score 4Probability: Unlikely · Impact: ModerateLow · Score 6Probability: Unlikely · Impact: MajorMedium · Score 8Probability: Unlikely · Impact: SevereMedium · Score 10
1Probability: Rare · Impact: NegligibleLow · Score 1Probability: Rare · Impact: MinorLow · Score 2Probability: Rare · Impact: ModerateLow · Score 3Probability: Rare · Impact: MajorLow · Score 4Probability: Rare · Impact: SevereLow · Score 5
12345
Impact
- Critical1
- High1
- Medium1
- Low0
Open impediments
1 escalated
- Site workers stopped 4 days over late wagesISS-0113 · Eng. Maher Al-HamawiCritical6 days overdueAction time limit exceededEscalated
- Oil leak in the station 2 transformer during testingISS-0114 · Eng. Maher Al-HamawiHigh5 days leftWithin the time limitOpen
- Incomplete bills of quantities attached to certificate 33ISS-0115 · Omar Al-NahhasMedium3 days leftWithin the time limitOpen
Deliverables
8 of 12 approved
- Project plan & baseline004-D1 · V1 · CRT-004-013%Eng. Maher Al-Hamawi2024-05-192024-05-19Approved
- Monitoring & reporting004-D2 · V1 · CRT-004-023%Eng. Wassim Al-Azm2024-08-052024-08-05Approved
- Detailed design004-D3 · V1 · CRT-004-036%Eng. Wassim Al-Azm2024-10-232024-10-23Approved
- Permits & approvals004-D4 · V1 · CRT-004-046%Salma Al-Zaim2025-01-092025-01-09Approved
- Site works & excavation004-D5 · V1 · CRT-004-0513%Salma Al-Zaim2025-03-292025-03-29Approved
- Structure004-D6 · V1 · CRT-004-0613%Eng. Maher Al-Hamawi2025-06-162025-06-16Approved
- Finishes004-D7 · V1 · CRT-004-0713%Eng. Wassim Al-Azm2025-09-022025-09-02Approved
- Supply004-D8 · V1 · CRT-004-0811%Eng. Maher Al-Hamawi2025-11-202025-11-20Approved
- Installation004-D9 · V19%Eng. Wassim Al-Azm264 days overdue2026-02-06Submitted
- Testing & commissioning004-D10 · V09%Salma Al-Zaim185 days overdue2026-04-26Draft
- Provisional acceptance004-D11 · V07%Eng. Wassim Al-Azm107 days overdue2026-07-13Draft
- Final acceptance004-D12 · V07%Salma Al-Zaim28 days overdue2026-09-30Draft
Team, contracts & documents
Team
4 members
Eng. Maher Al-Hamawi · Director, Energy, Water & Utilities ProjectsEng. Abdulrahman Al-Kilani · Deputy President, Development Projects Follow-upHuda Al-Dandal · Senior Financial Analyst — Investment Plan
- Eng. Maher Al-HamawiEng. Maher Al-HamawiDirector, Energy, Water & Utilities ProjectsProject managerP-021maher.alhamawi@psa.gov.sy70%
- Eng. Abdulrahman Al-KilaniEng. Abdulrahman Al-KilaniDeputy President, Development Projects Follow-upFollow-up lead — substations’ readiness to energiseP-010abdulrahman.alkilani@psa.gov.sy20%
- Huda Al-DandalHuda Al-DandalSenior Financial Analyst — Investment PlanFinancial analystP-037huda.aldandal@psa.gov.sy15%