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PRJ-2026-004Critical4ExecutionConstructionStalledDelivered by:Ministry of Energy

Aleppo 230 kV Substations Rehabilitation

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Rehabilitating four 230 kV substations in Aleppo city (28 high-voltage bays) and linking them to the control centre, to lengthen supply hours in the neighbourhoods and the industrial zone.

Early warning: ⁦95%⁩ chance of slipping within ⁦30⁩ days

Budget (BAC)

SYP 10.3B

Actual cost

SYP 8.3B

⁦81%⁩ of budget

Progress

⁦68%⁩Awaiting acceptance ⁦9%⁩

Estimate at completion

SYP 12.3B

+SYP 2B

SPI · CPI

0.74Schedule performance index · 0.740.84Cost performance index · 0.84

Forecast finish

⁦2027-02-03⁩

126 days behind baseline

ExecutionStage ⁦4⁩ of ⁦5⁩

Next gate:Closure13 July 2026

  1. Pre-start · CompletePre-start · Complete
  2. Gate into «Initiation»DecisionGoDate15 November 2023Initiation · CompleteInitiation · Complete
  3. Gate into «Planning»DecisionGoDate14 January 2024Planning · CompletePlanning · Complete
  4. Gate into «Execution»DecisionConditional goDate20 June 2024Execution · Current stageExecution · Current stage
  5. Gate into «Closure»DecisionNot held yetDate13 July 2026Closure · Not startedClosure · Not started

Finance & earned value

The full budget structure, cost broken down by eight dimensions, cash flow with its S-curve, and earned-value indicators with an automatic end-of-project forecast.

Budget anatomy

The approved SYP 10.3B split into spent, committed and left, with the estimate at completion

Forecast overrun SYP 2B
EAC SYP 12.3B
Revised request SYP 10.3B
  • Actual spendSYP 8.3B
  • Committed, not spentSYP 1.8B
  • Allotted, uncommittedSYP 0
  • Contingency availableSYP 309M

Budget

EstimatedManualFrom the project proposal — not from the finance systemthe proposal’s cost before approval
SYP 9.6B
Original budgetwhen the first baseline was approved
SYP 9.8B
Approved budgetafter approved change requests
SYP 10.3B
Current budgetavailable to spend now
SYP 10.3B
Revised budgetif the pending changes are approved
SYP 10.3B

Commitments

CommitmentsSyncedFrom the nightly finance-system syncsigned contracts and purchase orders
SYP 10.1B
Contracts2 active contracts
SYP 9.7B
Purchase orders⁦3⁩ orders
SYP 400M
Remaining budgetapproved less actual
SYP 2B

Spend & outlook

Actual costSyncedFrom the nightly finance-system syncincluding accruals
SYP 8.3B
Accrualswork done, not yet invoiced
SYP 333.5M
Estimate at completionManualThe project manager’s estimate — not from the finance systemthe PM’s bottom-up forecast
SYP 12.3B
ContingencySYP 206M drawn of SYP 515M
SYP 309M

Estimated vs approved budget

What the project proposal estimated before approval, against today’s approved budget and the estimate at completion

EstimatedSYP 9.6B
ApprovedSYP 10.3B
Estimate at completionSYP 12.3B
Approved is SYP 730M (⁦7.6%⁩) above the estimate
The estimate at completion is SYP 2.7B (⁦28.1%⁩) above the estimate

From the «project proposal & feasibility study» approved at the approval gate on ⁦2023-10-31⁩ · The gap between estimated and approved comes from the scope update and the change requests approved after the approval gate.

ERP link — data readiness

The link keys are ready for the finance-system sync; Munjaz follows the project and does not replace the accounting system

⁦4⁩ of ⁦4⁩ fields ready
  • Cost centreCC-51004
  • WBS elements⁦5⁩ elements · P-2026-004.01 …
  • Purchase orders⁦3⁩ synced · ⁦0⁩ manual
  • Invoices & certificates⁦53⁩ posted · ⁦1⁩ in approval
Last sync⁦2026-10-28⁩ · 06:00 · succeededNext tonight at 02:00

Where each figure comes from

  • EstimatedManualFrom the project proposal — not from the finance system
  • CommitmentsSyncedFrom the nightly finance-system sync
  • Actual costSyncedFrom the nightly finance-system sync
  • Estimate at completionManualThe project manager’s estimate — not from the finance system

Once the link is live, synced figures are read from the finance system; manual updates stay available to the same roles and are logged.

Purchase-order register

Manual edit log

Every manual update — who, when, why and from which source

No manual edits on this project

All its figures come from the finance-system sync. Finance & procurement — and the project manager, for the estimate at completion — can update them by hand.

Budget bridge

From the original to the revised request

  • Total
  • Increase
  • Decrease

Contingency draw-downs

SYP 206M drawn of SYP 515M

  • Covering realised delivery risks⁦2026-08-29⁩SYP 206M

Purchase orders

Cost breakdown structure

Every dimension adds up to the same totals

Cost breakdown structure — WBS
ItemBudgetSYP MCommittedSYP MActualSYP MEACSYP MVarianceSYP MConsumption
1Management & governance599.46735.71735.71735.71⁦−136.25⁩
2Design & permits1,198.921,471.431,471.431,471.43⁦−272.51⁩
3Civil works3,796.584,659.524,659.524,659.52⁦−862.94⁩
4MEP works2,997.302,390.681,471.433,438.01⁦−440.71⁩
5Handover1,398.74842.660.001,802.73⁦−403.99⁩
Unallocated contingency309.000.000.00154.50⁦+154.50⁩
Total10,300.0010,100.008,338.1012,261.91⁦−1,961.91⁩

Budget split

WBS

SYP 10.3B

Budget

  • Management & governanceSYP 599.5M⁦6%⁩
  • Design & permitsSYP 1.2B⁦12%⁩
  • Civil worksSYP 3.8B⁦37%⁩
  • MEP worksSYP 3B⁦29%⁩
  • HandoverSYP 1.4B⁦14%⁩
  • Unallocated contingencySYP 309M⁦3%⁩

Cash flow

Planned, committed, actual and forecast

Spend per period

SYP millions

  • Planned
  • Actual
  • Forecast

Cumulative S-curve

Cumulative to close

  • Actual, then forecast
  • Planned, cumulative
  • Committed, cumulative
  • Forecast

Earned value management

At the data date ⁦2026-10-28⁩

Planned value, earned value and actual cost

  • Planned value
  • Earned value
  • Actual cost
  • Estimate at completion
  • Budget at completion

Finish by earned schedule

⁦2028-07-09⁩+648

SPI(t) ⁦0.60⁩ against the approved finish ⁦2026-09-30⁩

Planned valuePV
SYP 10.3B
The value of the work that should be done by today.
PV
Earned valueEV
SYP 7B
The value of the work actually done, at plan prices.
EV = % complete × BAC
Actual costAC
SYP 8.3B
What has actually been spent on the work done.
AC
Budget at completionBAC
SYP 10.3B
The approved budget for the whole project.
BAC
Cost varianceCV
⁦−1,334.10⁩ SYP M
Earned less actual; negative means paying more than the value.
CV = EV − AC
Schedule varianceSV
⁦−3,296.00⁩ SYP M
Earned less planned; negative means behind, in value.
SV = EV − PV
Cost performance indexCPI
0.84
Value produced per pound spent; under 1 is an overrun.
CPI = EV ÷ AC
Schedule performance indexSPI
0.68
Work done over work planned; under 1 is behind.
SPI = EV ÷ PV
Estimate at completionEAC
SYP 12.3B
What the project will cost when it finishes, as forecast.
EAC = BAC ÷ CPI
Estimate to completeETC
SYP 3.9B
What is still to be spent to completion.
ETC = EAC − AC
Variance at completionVAC
⁦−1,961.91⁩ SYP M
Budget less the estimate; negative is an overrun.
VAC = BAC − EAC
To-complete performance indexTCPI
1.68
The cost efficiency the rest must reach to stay on budget.
TCPI = (BAC − EV) ÷ (BAC − AC)

Automatic end-of-project forecast

Four ways to estimate the final cost, and the date earned schedule points to

  • At today’s cost performanceSYP 12.3B
  • If the rest goes to planSYP 11.6B
  • At cost and schedule performanceSYP 14.1B
  • The PM’s bottom-up estimateSYP 12.3B
  • To stay within SYP 10.3B, cost performance on the rest must rise to ⁦1.68⁩ — above what has been achieved.

Estimate at completion at that performance

SYP 12.3B

Variance at completion: ⁦−1,961.90⁩ SYP M

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